Getting My Ass Handed to Me by the World’s Largest Hedge Fund — Medium Quote: "I now run through a mental check list as a first step in reasoning. It is scenario specific but usually starts with some take on the following 5 questions and expands from there: What am I trying to achieve here or what is my goal? What information/evidence do I have and what information/evidence do I still need? What are the potential second order (and higher) impacts of this scenario (both upside and downside)? What has to happen for “X” scenario to be true? What are the risks and rewards of this scenario and how likely are they to transpire? (categories: whythinkingreasoningsystem-1first-principle )